Alcohol Use and the Risk of Communicable Diseases.

The body of knowledge on alcohol use and communicable diseases has been growing in recent years. Using a narrative review approach, this paper discusses alcohol's role in the acquisition of and treatment outcomes from four different communicable diseases: these include three conditions included in comparative risk assessments to date-Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/AIDS, tuberculosis (TB), and lower respiratory infections/pneumonia-as well as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) because of its recent and rapid ascension as a global health concern. Alcohol-attributable TB, HIV, and pneumonia combined were responsible for approximately 360,000 deaths and 13 million disability-adjusted life years lost (DALYs) in 2016, with alcohol-attributable TB deaths and DALYs predominating. There is strong evidence that alcohol is associated with increased incidence of and poorer treatment outcomes from HIV, TB, and pneumonia, via both behavioral and biological mechanisms. Preliminary studies suggest that heavy drinkers and those with alcohol use disorders are at increased risk of COVID-19 infection and severe illness. Aside from HIV research, limited research exists that can guide interventions for addressing alcohol-attributable TB and pneumonia or COVID-19. Implementation of effective individual-level interventions and alcohol control policies as a means of reducing the burden of communicable diseases is recommended.

Child mortality from sickle cell disease in Nigeria: a model-estimated, population-level analysis of data from the 2018 Demographic and Health Survey.

BACKGROUND: Child mortality from sickle cell disease in sub-Saharan Africa is presumed to be high but is not well quantified. This uncertainty contributes to the neglect of sickle cell disease and delays the prioritisation of interventions. In this study, we estimated the mortality of children in Nigeria with sickle cell disease, and the proportion of national under-5 mortality attributable to sickle cell disease. METHODS: We did a model-estimated, population-level analysis of data from Nigeria's 2018 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) to estimate the prevalence and geographical distribution of HbSS and HbSC genotypes assuming Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium near birth. Interviews for the survey were done between Aug 14 and Dec 29, 2018, and the embedded sickle cell disease survey was done in a randomly selected third of the overall survey's households. We developed an approach for estimating child mortality from sickle cell disease by combining information on tested children and their untested siblings. Tested children were aged 6-59 months at the time of the survey. Untested siblings born 0-14 years before the survey were also included in analyses. Testing as part of the DHS was done without regard to disease status. We analysed mortality differences using the inheritance-derived genotypic distribution of untested siblings older than the tested cohort, enabling us to estimate excess mortality from sickle cell disease for the older-sibling cohort (ie, those born between 2003 and 2013). FINDINGS: We analysed test results for 11 186 children aged 6-59 months from 7411 households in Nigeria. The estimated average birth prevalence of HbSS was 1·21% (95% CI 1·09-1·37) and was 0·24% (0·19-0·31) for HbSC. We obtained data for estimating child mortality from 10 195 tested children (who could be matched to the individual mother survey) and 17 205 of their untested siblings. 15 227 of the siblings were in the older-sibling cohort. The group of children with sickle cell disease born between 2003 and 2013 with at least one younger sibling in the survey had about 370 excess under-5 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% CI 150-580; p=0·0008) than children with HbAA. The estimated national average under-5 mortality for children with sickle cell disease born between 2003 and 2013 was 490 per 1000 livebirths (95% CI 270-700), 4·0 times higher (95% CI 2·1-6·0) than children with HbAA. About 4·2% (95% CI 1·7-6·9) of national under-5 mortality was attributable to excess mortality from sickle cell disease. INTERPRETATION: The burden of child mortality from sickle cell disease in Nigeria continues to be disproportionately higher than the burden of mortality of children without sickle cell disease. Most of these deaths could be prevented if adequate resources were allocated and available focused interventions were implemented. The methods developed in this study could be used to estimate the burden of sickle cell disease elsewhere in Africa and south Asia. FUNDING: Sickle Pan African Research Consortium, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cancer burden in Nepal, 1990-2017: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study.

INTRODUCTION: Cancer is the second leading cause of death and a major public health problem in the world. This study reports the trend and burden of cancer from 1990 to 2017 along with its risk factors in Nepal. METHODS: This study used the database of the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation's Global Burden of Diseases on cancer from Nepal to describe the most recent data available (2017) and trends by age, gender, and year from 1990 to 2017. The data are described as incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and percentage change. RESULTS: In 2017, the age-standardized cancer incidence and mortality rates were 101.8/100,000 and 86.6/100,000 respectively in Nepal. Cancer contributed to 10% of total deaths and 5.6% of total DALYs in Nepal. The most common cancers were the breast, lung, cervical, stomach and oral cavity cancers. The number of new cancer cases and deaths in Nepal have increased from 1990 to 2017 by 92% and 95% respectively. On the other hand, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates decreased by 5% and 7% respectively. The leading risk factors of cancer were tobacco use, dietary factors, unsafe sex, air pollution, drug use, and physical inactivity. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlighted the burden of cancer in Nepal, contributing to a significant number of new cancer cases, deaths and DALY. A comprehensive approach including prevention, early diagnosis and treatment, and rehabilitation should be urgently taken to reduce the burden of cancer.

Estimating the cause-specific relative risks of non-optimal temperature on daily mortality: a two-part modelling approach applied to the Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: Associations between high and low temperatures and increases in mortality and morbidity have been previously reported, yet no comprehensive assessment of disease burden has been done. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the global and regional burden due to non-optimal temperature exposure. METHODS: In part 1 of this study, we linked deaths to daily temperature estimates from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. We modelled the cause-specific relative risks for 176 individual causes of death along daily temperature and 23 mean temperature zones using a two-dimensional spline within a Bayesian meta-regression framework. We then calculated the cause-specific and total temperature-attributable burden for the countries for which daily mortality data were available. In part 2, we applied cause-specific relative risks from part 1 to all locations globally. We combined exposure-response curves with daily gridded temperature and calculated the cause-specific burden based on the underlying burden of disease from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, for the years 1990-2019. Uncertainty from all components of the modelling chain, including risks, temperature exposure, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels, defined as the temperature of minimum mortality across all included causes, was propagated using posterior simulation of 1000 draws. FINDINGS: We included 64·9 million individual International Classification of Diseases-coded deaths from nine different countries, occurring between Jan 1, 1980, and Dec 31, 2016. 17 causes of death met the inclusion criteria. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, hypertensive heart disease, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, lower respiratory infection, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease showed J-shaped relationships with daily temperature, whereas the risk of external causes (eg, homicide, suicide, drowning, and related to disasters, mechanical, transport, and other unintentional injuries) increased monotonically with temperature. The theoretical minimum risk exposure levels varied by location and year as a function of the underlying cause of death composition. Estimates for non-optimal temperature ranged from 7·98 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 7·10-8·85) per 100 000 and a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 1·2% (1·1-1·4) in Brazil to 35·1 deaths (29·9-40·3) per 100 000 and a PAF of 4·7% (4·3-5·1) in China. In 2019, the average cold-attributable mortality exceeded heat-attributable mortality in all countries for which data were available. Cold effects were most pronounced in China with PAFs of 4·3% (3·9-4·7) and attributable rates of 32·0 deaths (27·2-36·8) per 100 000 and in New Zealand with 3·4% (2·9-3·9) and 26·4 deaths (22·1-30·2). Heat effects were most pronounced in China with PAFs of 0·4% (0·3-0·6) and attributable rates of 3·25 deaths (2·39-4·24) per 100 000 and in Brazil with 0·4% (0·3-0·5) and 2·71 deaths (2·15-3·37). When applying our framework to all countries globally, we estimated that 1·69 million (1·52-1·83) deaths were attributable to non-optimal temperature globally in 2019. The highest heat-attributable burdens were observed in south and southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and North Africa and the Middle East, and the highest cold-attributable burdens in eastern and central Europe, and central Asia. INTERPRETATION: Acute heat and cold exposure can increase or decrease the risk of mortality for a diverse set of causes of death. Although in most regions cold effects dominate, locations with high prevailing temperatures can exhibit substantial heat effects far exceeding cold-attributable burden. Particularly, a high burden of external causes of death contributed to strong heat impacts, but cardiorespiratory diseases and metabolic diseases could also be substantial contributors. Changes in both exposures and the composition of causes of death drove changes in risk over time. Steady increases in exposure to the risk of high temperature are of increasing concern for health. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of respiratory tract cancers and associated risk factors from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Prevention, control, and treatment of respiratory tract cancers are important steps towards achieving target 3.4 of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)-a one-third reduction in premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases by 2030. We aimed to provide global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 methodology, we evaluated the incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of respiratory tract cancers (ie, tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer). Deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer attributable to each risk factor were estimated on the basis of risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input from 204 countries and territories, stratified by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Trends were estimated from 1990 to 2019, with an emphasis on the 2010-19 period. FINDINGS: Globally, there were 2·26 million (95% uncertainty interval 2·07 to 2·45) new cases of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, and 2·04 million (1·88 to 2·19) deaths and 45·9 million (42·3 to 49·3) DALYs due to tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer in 2019. There were 209 000 (194 000 to 225 000) new cases of larynx cancer, and 123 000 (115 000 to 133 000) deaths and 3·26 million (3·03 to 3·51) DALYs due to larynx cancer globally in 2019. From 2010 to 2019, the number of new tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer cases increased by 23·3% (12·9 to 33·6) globally and the number of larynx cancer cases increased by 24·7% (16·0 to 34·1) globally. Global age-standardised incidence rates of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer decreased by 7·4% (-16·8 to 1·6) and age-standardised incidence rates of larynx cancer decreased by 3·0% (-10·5 to 5·0) in males over the past decade; however, during the same period, age-standardised incidence rates in females increased by 0·9% (-8·2 to 10·2) for tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and decreased by 0·5% (-8·4 to 8·1) for larynx cancer. Furthermore, although age-standardised incidence and death rates declined in both sexes combined from 2010 to 2019 at the global level for tracheal, bronchus, lung and larynx cancers, some locations had rising rates, particularly those on the lower end of the SDI range. Smoking contributed to an estimated 64·2% (61·9-66·4) of all deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and 63·4% (56·3-69·3) of all deaths from larynx cancer in 2019. For males and for both sexes combined, smoking was the leading specific risk factor for age-standardised deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer per 100 000 in all SDI quintiles and GBD regions in 2019. However, among females, household air pollution from solid fuels was the leading specific risk factor in the low SDI quintile and in three GBD regions (central, eastern, and western sub-Saharan Africa) in 2019. INTERPRETATION: The numbers of incident cases and deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer increased globally during the past decade. Even more concerning, age-standardised incidence and death rates due to tracheal, bronchus, lung cancer and larynx cancer increased in some populations-namely, in the lower SDI quintiles and among females. Preventive measures such as smoking control interventions, air quality management programmes focused on major air pollution sources, and widespread access to clean energy should be prioritised in these settings. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1.

BACKGROUND: Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. METHODS: For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. FINDINGS: By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4-82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5-42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4-41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3-84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4-44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4-81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6-60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4-15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. INTERPRETATION: After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, Regional, and National Incidence and Year Lived with Disability for Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia from 1990 to 2019.

The objective of this study is to provide comprehensive and up-to-date estimates on the disease burden of BPH in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019. Data about incidence, year lived with disability (YLD), and their age-standardized rates (ASRs) for 21 regions, 5 Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles, 204 countries and territories, and 12 age categories from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) of the ASRs and the associations between SDI and the ASRs were estimated. The effects of population growth, population aging, and age-specific rate on the changes in the absolute numbers of incidence and YLD were quantified. Globally, there were 11.26 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 8.79, 14.46) new cases and 1.86 million (95%UI: 1.13, 2.78) YLD due to BPH in 2019. The global ASRs of incidence (EAPC: -0.031, 95% CI: -0.050, -0.012) and YLD (EAPC: -0.058, 95% CI: -0.084, -0.031) decreased slightly from 1990 to 2019, whereas the absolute numbers increased dramatically from 1990 (incidence by 105.7% and YLD by 110.6%), mainly driven by the population growth (53.5% for incidence and 54.4% for YLD) and population aging (55.7% for incidence and 63.2% for YLD). The burden of BPH varied markedly among different regions, socioeconomic status, and countries. As the population is growing and aging, great efforts are required to develop effective prevention, treatment and management strategies to meet the high and increasing burden of BPH worldwide.

Chinese and global burdens of gastric cancer from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Gastric cancer is a common cancer in China. This project investigated the disease burden of gastric cancer from 1990 to 2019 in China and globally. METHODS: The global age-standardized rates (ASRs) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease. Moreover, the estimated annual percentage changes (eAPCs) in the ASRs of incidence (ASIR), mortality (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated to determine the trends by countries and regions. RESULTS: In China, the ASIR declined from 37.56 to 30.64 per 100,000 and the ASMR declined from 37.73 to 21.72 per 100,000. The global ASIR decreased from 22.44 to 15.59 and the ASMR declined from 20.48 to 11.88 per 100,000 persons from 1990 to 2019. The ASIR was the lowest in Malawi (3.28 per 100,000) and the highest in Mongolia (43.7 per 100,000), whereas the ASMR was the lowest in the United States of America (3.40 per 100,000) and the highest in Mongolia (40.04 per 100,000) in 2019. The incidence of early-onset gastric cancer increased in China. The DALYs attributed to gastric cancer presented a slight decrease during the period. China had a higher mortality/incidence ratio (0.845) and 5-year prevalence (27.6/100,000) than most developed countries. CONCLUSION: China presented a steady decline in the incidence and mortality rates for gastric cancer. The global ASIR, ASMR, and DALYs showed a slight rise decrease. Different patterns of gastric cancer rates and temporal trends have been identified in different geographical regions, indicating that specific strategies are needed to prevent the increase in some countries.

Burden of pancreatic cancer along with attributable risk factors in Europe between 1990 and 2019, and projections until 2039.

Projecting the burden of pancreatic cancer over time provides essential information to effectively plan measures for its management and prevention. Here, we obtained data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study between 1990 and 2019, to model how pancreatic cancer will affect the 27 countries of the European Union (EU) plus the United Kingdom (the pre-Brexit EU-28) until 2039 by conducting the Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. The number of new pancreatic cancer cases in the EU-28 was 59 000 in 1990, 109 000 in 2019 and projected to be 147 000 in 2039. This corresponded to 60 000, 109 000 and 155 000 for deaths, and a loss of 1.3 million, 2.0 million and 2.7 million for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), respectively. The most pronounced increase of the crude incidence rate was observed and projected to be in the population older than 80 years. The age-standardized rate (ASR) of incidence, however, increased from 8.6 to 10.1 per 100 000 person-years during 1990-2019 but was projected to remain stable during 2019-2039. At the same time, our models only predicted a mild increase in the ASR of mortality until 2039. The fraction of pancreatic cancer mortality attributable to tobacco consumption decreased during 1990-2019, but we found upward trends for the attributable fractions for high fasting plasma glucose and high body mass index. In conclusion, a substantial increase in counts of incidence, mortality and DALYs lost of pancreatic cancer in the EU-28 is projected over the next two decades, which indicates the need for future health policies and interventions.

Joint IARC/NCI International Cancer Seminar Series Report: expert consensus on future directions for ovarian carcinoma research.

Recently, ovarian cancer research has evolved considerably because of the emerging recognition that rather than a single disease, ovarian carcinomas comprise several different histotypes that vary by etiologic origin, risk factors, molecular profiles, therapeutic approaches and clinical outcome. Despite significant progress in our understanding of the etiologic heterogeneity of ovarian cancer, as well as important clinical advances, it remains the eighth most frequently diagnosed cancer in women worldwide and the most fatal gynecologic cancer. The International Agency for Research on Cancer and the United States National Cancer Institute jointly convened an expert panel on ovarian carcinoma to develop consensus research priorities based on evolving scientific discoveries. Expertise ranged from etiology, prevention, early detection, pathology, model systems, molecular characterization and treatment/clinical management. This report summarizes the current state of knowledge and highlights expert consensus on future directions to continue advancing etiologic, epidemiologic and prognostic research on ovarian carcinoma.

Forecasting for the need of dentists and specialists in South Africa until 2030.

To manage the increasing burden of dental diseases, a robust health system is essential. In order to ensure the oral health system operates at an optimal level going into the future, a forecast of the national shortfall of dentists and dental specialists in South Africa (SA) was undertaken. There is currently a shortage of dentists and specialists in SA and given the huge burden of dental diseases, there is a dire need to increase the number of these health care workers. The aim was to determine the projected shortfall of dentists and specialists in each of the nine provinces in SA. The projected shortfall was calculated based on the SA Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) for each province. The estimate for the evaluation of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) for SA was obtained from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Global Burden of Disease website. For each province, age standardized DALYs were calculated with mid-year population estimates obtained from Statistics SA 2018. In order to reduce the existing human resources for health (HRH) inequity among the provinces of SA, three scenarios were created focussing on attaining horizontal equity. The best-case scenario estimates a shortfall of 430, 1252 and 1885 dentists and specialists in 2018, 2024 and 2030 respectively. In an optimistic scenario, the national shortfall was calculated at 733, 1540 and 2158 dentists and specialists for the years 2018, 2024 and 2030 respectively. In an aspirational scenario, shortfalls of 853 (2018), 1655 (2024) and 2267 (2030) dentists and specialists were forecasted. Access to oral health services should be ensured through the optimum supply of trained dentists and specialists and the delivery of appropriate oral health services. Thus, the roadmap provided for upscaling the oral health services recognizes the influence of both demand and supply factors on the pursuit of equity.

Measuring the global, regional, and national burden of multiple myeloma from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Multiple myeloma (MM) is a major health concern. Understanding the different burden and tendency of MM in different regions is crucial for formulating specific local strategies. Therefore, we evaluated the epidemiologic patterns and explored the risk factors for MM death. METHODS: Data on MM were collected from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study. We used incidence, mortality, and disability adjusted life-years to estimate the global, regional, and national burden of MM. RESULTS: In 2019, there were 155,688 (95% UI, 136,585 - 172,577) MM cases worldwide, of which 84,516 (54.3%, 70,924 - 94,910) were of men. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 1.72/100,000 persons (95% UI, 1.59-1.93) in 1990 and 1.92/100,000 persons (95% UI, 1.68-2.12) in 2019. The number of MM deaths increased 1.19-fold from 51,862 (95% UI, 47,710-58,979) in 1990 to 113,474 (95% UI, 99,527 - 121,735) in 2019; the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) was 1.42/100,000 persons (95% UI, 1.24-1.52) in 2019. In recent 15 years, ASDR showed a steady tendency for men, and a downward tendency for women. Countries with high social-demographic indexes exhibited a higher ASIR and ASDR. Australasia, North America, and Western Europe had the highest ASIR and ASDR, with 46.3% incident cases and 41.8% death cases. Monaco had the highest ASIR and ASDR, which was almost half as high as the second highest country Barbados. In addition, United Arab Emirates and Qatar had the largest growth multiple in ASIR and ASDR, which was twice the third country Djibouti. CONCLUSIONS: Globally, incident and death MM cases have more than doubled over the past 30 years. The increasing global burden may continue with population aging, whereas mortality may continue to decrease with the progression of medical technology. The global burden pattern of MM was diverse, therefore specific local strategies based on different burden patterns for MM are necessary.

Maternal nutrition and its intergenerational links to non-communicable disease metabolic risk factors: a systematic review and narrative synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death and disability globally, while malnutrition presents a major global burden. An increasing body of evidence suggests that poor maternal nutrition is related to the development of NCDs and their risk factors in adult offspring. However, there has been no systematic evaluation of this evidence. METHODS: We searched eight electronic databases and reference lists for primary research published between 1 January 1996 and 31 May 2016 for studies presenting data on various dimensions of maternal nutritional status (including maternal exposure to famine, maternal gestational weight gain (GWG), maternal weight and/or body mass index (BMI), and maternal dietary intake) during pregnancy or lactation, and measures of at least one of three NCD metabolic risk factors (blood pressure, blood lipids and blood glucose) in the study population of offspring aged 18 years or over. Owing to high heterogeneity across exposures and outcomes, we employed a narrative approach for data synthesis (PROSPERO= CRD42016039244, CRD42016039247). RESULTS: Twenty-seven studies from 10 countries with 62,607 participants in total met our inclusion criteria. The review revealed considerable heterogeneity in findings across studies. There was evidence of a link between maternal exposure to famine during pregnancy with adverse blood pressure, blood lipid, and glucose metabolism outcomes in adult offspring in some contexts, with some tentative support for an influence of adult offspring adiposity in this relationship. However, the evidence base for maternal BMI, GWG, and dietary intake of specific nutrients during pregnancy was more limited and revealed no consistent support for a link between these exposures and adult offspring NCD metabolic risk factors. CONCLUSION: The links identified between maternal exposure to famine and offspring NCD risk factors in some contexts, and the tentative support for the role of adult offspring adiposity in influencing this relationship, suggest the need for increased collaboration between maternal nutrition and NCD sectors. However, in view of the current scant evidence base for other aspects of maternal nutrition, and the overall heterogeneity of findings, ongoing monitoring and evaluation using large prospective studies and linked data sets is a major priority.

Global, regional, and national burden and quality of care index (QCI) of thyroid cancer: A systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2017.

BACKGROUND: Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most prevalent malignancy of the endocrine system. Over the past decades, TC incidence rates have been increasing. TC quality of care (QOC) has yet to be well understood. We aimed to assess the quality of TC care and its disparities. METHODS: We retrieved primary epidemiologic indices from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990-2017 database. We calculated four secondary indices of mortality to incidence ratio, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to prevalence ratio, prevalence to incidence ratio, and years of life lost (YLLs) to years lived with disability (YLD) ratio and summarized them by the principal component analysis (PCA) to produce one unique index presented as the quality of care index (QCI) ranged between 0 and 100, to compare different scales. The gender disparity ratio (GDR), defined as the QCI for females divided by QCI for males, was applied to show gender inequity. RESULTS: In 2017, there were 255,489 new TC incident cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 245,709-272,470) globally, which resulted in 41,235 deaths (39,911-44,139). The estimated global QCI was 84.39. The highest QCI was observed in the European region (93.84), with Italy having the highest score (99.77). Conversely, the lowest QCI was seen in the African region (55.09), where the Central African Republic scored the lowest (13.64). The highest and lowest socio-demographic index (SDI) regions scored 97.27 and 53.85, respectively. Globally, gender disparity was higher after the age of 40 years and in favor of better care in women. CONCLUSION: TC QOC is better among those countries of higher socioeconomic status, possibly due to better healthcare access and early detection in these regions. Overall, the quality of TC care was higher in women and younger adults. Countries could adopt the introduced index of QOC to investigate the quality of provided care for different diseases and conditions.

The Association of Socioeconomic Status with the Burden of Cataract-related Blindness and the Effect of Ultraviolet Radiation Exposure: An Ecological Study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of socioeconomic status with the burden of cataract blindness in terms of year lived with disability (YLD) rates and to determine whether ultraviolet radiation (UVR) levels modify the effect of socioeconomic status on this health burden. METHODS: National and subnational age-standardized YLD rates associated with cataract-related blindness were derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2017. The human development index (HDI) from the Human Development Report was used as a measure of socioeconomic status. Estimated ground-level UVR exposure was obtained from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) dataset of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). RESULTS: Across 185 countries, socioeconomic status was inversely associated with the burden of cataract blindness. Countries with a very high HDI had an 84% lower age-standardized YLD rate [95% confidence interval ( CI): 60%-93%, P < 0.001] than countries with a low HDI; for high-HDI countries, the proportion was 76% (95% CI: 53%-88%, P < 0.001), and for medium-HDI countries, the proportion was 48% (95% CI: 15%-68%, P = 0.010; P for trend < 0.001). The interaction analysis showed that UVR exposure played an interactive role in the association between socioeconomic status and cataract blindness burden ( P value for interaction = 0.047). CONCLUSION: Long-term high-UVR exposure amplifies the association of poor socioeconomic status with the burden of cataract-related blindness. The findings emphasize the need for strengthening UVR exposure protection interventions in developing countries with high-UVR exposure.

Rheumatic heart disease in Indigenous young peoples.

Indigenous children and young peoples live with an inequitable burden of acute rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease. In this Review, we focus on the epidemiological burden and lived experience of these conditions for Indigenous young peoples in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. We outline the direct and indirect drivers of rheumatic heart disease risk and their mitigation. Specifically, we identify the opportunities and limitations of predominantly biomedical approaches to the primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention of disease among Indigenous peoples. We explain why these biomedical approaches must be coupled with decolonising approaches to address the underlying cause of disease. Initiatives underway to reduce acute rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada are reviewed to identify how an Indigenous rights-based approach could contribute to elimination of rheumatic heart disease and global disease control goals.

Hearing loss prevalence and years lived with disability, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Hearing loss affects access to spoken language, which can affect cognition and development, and can negatively affect social wellbeing. We present updated estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study on the prevalence of hearing loss in 2019, as well as the condition's associated disability. METHODS: We did systematic reviews of population-representative surveys on hearing loss prevalence from 1990 to 2019. We fitted nested meta-regression models for severity-specific prevalence, accounting for hearing aid coverage, cause, and the presence of tinnitus. We also forecasted the prevalence of hearing loss until 2050. FINDINGS: An estimated 1·57 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·51-1·64) people globally had hearing loss in 2019, accounting for one in five people (20·3% [19·5-21·1]). Of these, 403·3 million (357·3-449·5) people had hearing loss that was moderate or higher in severity after adjusting for hearing aid use, and 430·4 million (381·7-479·6) without adjustment. The largest number of people with moderate-to-complete hearing loss resided in the Western Pacific region (127·1 million people [112·3-142·6]). Of all people with a hearing impairment, 62·1% (60·2-63·9) were older than 50 years. The Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index explained 65·8% of the variation in national age-standardised rates of years lived with disability, because countries with a low HAQ Index had higher rates of years lived with disability. By 2050, a projected 2·45 billion (2·35-2·56) people will have hearing loss, a 56·1% (47·3-65·2) increase from 2019, despite stable age-standardised prevalence. INTERPRETATION: As populations age, the number of people with hearing loss will increase. Interventions such as childhood screening, hearing aids, effective management of otitis media and meningitis, and cochlear implants have the potential to ameliorate this burden. Because the burden of moderate-to-complete hearing loss is concentrated in countries with low health-care quality and access, stronger health-care provision mechanisms are needed to reduce the burden of unaddressed hearing loss in these settings. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Quantifying the global number of tuberculosis survivors: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: People who survive tuberculosis face clinical and societal consequences after recovery, including increased risks of recurrent tuberculosis, premature death, reduced lung function, and ongoing stigma. To describe the size of this issue, we aimed to estimate the number of individuals who developed first-episode tuberculosis between 1980 and 2019, the number who survived to 2020, and the number who have been treated within the past 5 years or 2 years. METHODS: In this modelling study, we estimated the number of people who survived treated tuberculosis using country-level WHO data on tuberculosis case notifications, excluding those who died during treatment. We estimated the number of individuals surviving untreated tuberculosis using the difference between WHO country-level incidence estimates and notifications, applying published age-stratified and HIV-stratified case fatality ratios. To estimate survival with time, post-tuberculosis life tables were developed for each country-year by use of UN World Population Prospects 2019 mortality rates and published post-tuberculosis mortality hazard ratios. FINDINGS: Between 1980 and 2019, we estimate that 363 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 287 million-438 million) developed tuberculosis, of whom 172 million (169 million-174 million) were treated. Individuals who developed tuberculosis between 1980 and 2019 had lived 3480 million life-years (95% UI 3040 million-3920 million) after tuberculosis by 2020, with survivors younger than 15 years at the time of tuberculosis development contributing 12% (95% UI 7-17) of these life-years. We estimate that 155 million tuberculosis survivors (95% UI 138 million-171 million) were alive in 2020, the largest proportion (47% [37-57]) of whom were in the WHO South-East Asia region. Of the tuberculosis survivors who were alive in 2020, we estimate that 18% (95% UI 16-20) were treated in the past 5 years and 8% (7-9) were treated in the past 2 years. INTERPRETATION: The number of tuberculosis survivors alive in 2020 is more than ten times the estimated annual tuberculosis incidence. Interventions to alleviate respiratory morbidity, screen for and prevent recurrent tuberculosis, and reduce stigma should be immediately prioritised for recently treated tuberculosis survivors. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, the UK Department for International Development, the National Institute for Health Research, and the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership.

A global, regional, and national survey on burden and Quality of Care Index (QCI) of brain and other central nervous system cancers; global burden of disease systematic analysis 1990-2017.

Primary brain and other central nervous system (CNS) cancers cause major burdens. In this study, we introduced a measure named the Quality of Care Index (QCI), which indirectly evaluates the quality of care given to patients with this group of cancers. Here we aimed to compare different geographic and socioeconomic patterns of CNS cancer care according to the novel measure introduced. In this regard, we acquired age-standardized primary epidemiologic measures were acquired from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 1990-2017. The primary measures were combined to make four secondary indices which all of them indirectly show the quality of care given to patients. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method was utilized to calculate the essential component named QCI. Further analyses were made based on QCI to assess the quality of care globally, regionally, and nationally (with a scale of 0-100 which higher values represent better quality of care). For 2017, the global calculated QCI was 55.0. QCI showed a desirable condition in higher socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles. Oppositely, low SDI quintile countries (7.7) had critically worse care quality. Western Pacific Region with the highest (76.9) and African Region with the lowest QCIs (9.9) were the two WHO regions extremes. Singapore was the country with the maximum QCI of 100, followed by Japan (99.9) and South Korea (98.9). In contrast, Swaziland (2.5), Lesotho (3.5), and Vanuatu (3.9) were countries with the worse condition. While the quality of care for most regions was desirable, regions with economic constraints showed to have poor quality of care and require enforcements toward this lethal diagnosis.